My predictions for 2026:

AI and SaaS become indistinguishable.

AGI is not achieved, not even close, despite ever-more anxiety-inducing up-and-to-the-right graphs about how fast we’re moving towards it.

An AI-native version of every legacy incumbent app is launched.

Incumbent apps continue to try to to “glue” AI on top of their non-AI-native UX, and call themselves “AI _____ for ______”.

Ever more founders build in public, and keep doing it past $100m ARR.

We see (and hear very loudly about) the first $100m ARR, 10 person startup.

There is a quiet yet massive uptick in bootstrapped, solo, tiny, niche SaaS.

There is a quiet yet massive uptick in Zombie SaaS whose founders, employees, and investors all think they are worth ______ million (until they sell for 1/10th of that).

Aggregate revenue grows across the board, while teams shrink, as AI proficiency moves through the rank-and-file. “AI didn’t take your job - someone using AI did.”

Cold email gets harder, the response is more volume, more automation.

LinkedIn DM spam bot nets become unbearable.

Building audience on LinkedIn gets harder, as AI makes pattern-matching what’s “working” that second easier and widespread.

YouTube becomes a top 2 channel for early-stage B2B (who know how to make videos).

AI products that generate UGC as a byproduct of users bragging about how smart they are on LinkedIn propel newly launched startups to $XXX,XXX,XXX ARR.

Simple products cut through the noise because features are built faster than companies can educate their teams or users on them.

The dollar loses another 10% of its value, equities barely outpace dollar depreciation, yet the 1% feels great about their portfolio being up 12%. Rates remain high. Forever.

Consumer spending decreases as the “non-1%” get hammered by a contracting labor market and rising inflation. The 1% is completely oblivious because they listen to the All-In Podcast every week and think AI and humanoid robots will be our savior.

People rally behind universal high income because it assuages AI fear despite the fact that it’s nonsense, because no matter how much abundance there is, if you have 20% less than all your peers you feel poor (which will keep us all working)

The price of fixing anything at your home goes up another 25% in affluent neighborhoods

Tesla pushes through (without gov’t approval) true a version of self-driving that allows you to actually work while you drive longer distances or sit in traffic.

“Alpha Anywhere” - Alpha’s AI-taught homeschool program - explodes in popularity because it’s actually better than school, 2hrs/day, and homeschool is already more popular than we realize.

There is an exponential increase in off-label uses of micro-dosing GLP-1’s as the public realizes diet cleanup fixes 1,000 other things.

We increasingly hear Riyadh is the next Dubai, and wonder why we’re hearing it.

I move to Aspen January 4 with my family to push the idea of the “lifestyle business” to the extreme.